The simplistic version of the Mexican nearshoring story peaked sometime in late 2023 — the moment headline FDI figures became a recurring slide in every emerging markets deck. That headline narrative then took some lumps in 2024 and 2025: a peso reversal, election noise, tariff threat oscillation, and a slowdown in greenfield announcements relative to the 2022–2023 surge. What was less reported is that the mix of FDI quietly improved. Lower-value assembly slowed; higher-value electronics, medical devices, and automotive components held up.
Key takeaways
- Total greenfield announcements peaked in 2023 and have since plateaued.
- Electronics and medical device FDI as a share of total has risen meaningfully.
- Northern industrial corridor capacity utilisation is at historical highs.
- The 2026 tariff outcome will determine the trajectory of the next leg.
Why the mix shift matters more than the level
The maquiladora era was assembly-led. The 2022–2023 surge was assembly-plus, with growing electronics. The 2024–2026 phase is the first real evidence of mid-value-add electronics, automotive components, and medical devices choosing Mexico over alternative locations on a sustained basis. That's a structurally more attractive composition.
- Electronics FDI as a share of total: up materially
- Medical device FDI: at record share
- Automotive components: resilient
- Pure assembly: flat to down
What the slowdown narrative misses
A plateau in greenfield announcements is not failure — it reflects a maturation phase. The existing investments are now ramping. Capacity utilisation in the Bajío and Nuevo León corridors is at multi-decade highs.
The tariff overhang
The 2026 USMCA review is the real swing factor. A constructive outcome unlocks the next leg.
The political dimension
State-level governance in the industrial corridors has remained pragmatic, even through federal noise.
Mexican FDI composition
| Sector share of FDI | 2021 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Assembly | 38% | 27% |
| Electronics | 14% | 22% |
| Auto components | 18% | 21% |
| Medical devices | 6% | 11% |
The mix shift is the real story; the headline cool-off is mostly maturation.
Frequently asked questions
Has nearshoring failed?
No. It has matured.
What's the binding risk?
The 2026 USMCA review.
Which regions are tightest?
Bajío and Nuevo León.
The bottom line
The Mexican nearshoring story has matured, not failed. The composition is now structurally better than the peak.
