The Indian growth story for most of the post-2014 period was a public-investment story. Roads, railways, ports, defence — the central government built. Private capex stayed muted, suppressed by a long deleveraging cycle in banks, corporate balance sheet repair, and a wait-and-see stance through two electoral cycles. That posture has flipped. Capital expenditure announcements from listed Indian corporates over the trailing four quarters have crossed a level not seen since the 2010–2012 peak — and unlike that cycle, this one is not concentrated in infrastructure or property.
Key takeaways
- Private capex announcements have crossed the prior 2011 peak in nominal rupees.
- The mix is dominated by industrials, electronics, chemicals and data centres.
- Bank balance sheets are now in a position to fund it without strain.
- Macro implication: the marginal driver of growth shifts away from public capex.
What is being built
Four buckets dominate. Specialty chemicals capacity is being added to capture China-plus-one chemical sourcing. Electronics assembly is scaling on the back of PLI incentives. Steel majors are running brownfield expansions in eastern India. Data centre capex, almost non-existent five years ago, is now meaningful.
- Chemicals. Specialty intermediates and agrochemicals are leading.
- Electronics. Mobile assembly is moving to module-level fabrication.
- Steel. Tata, JSW and SAIL are all expanding.
- Data centres. Mumbai, Chennai and Hyderabad are the new clusters.
Why this cycle looks different
The 2010 cycle was financed by short-term wholesale funding, concentrated in infrastructure, and ended in a non-performing asset crisis. This cycle is being financed largely by retained earnings and term loans against repaired balance sheets.
What it does to credit growth
Corporate credit growth is finally exceeding retail credit growth — the first time in a decade.
Where the bottlenecks are
Land, skilled labour, and reliable power in specific industrial corridors.
Sector capex shares
| Sector | 2018–20 avg | 2025–26 avg |
|---|---|---|
| Infrastructure | ~45% | ~30% |
| Chemicals | ~8% | ~14% |
| Electronics | ~3% | ~12% |
| Data centres | ~0% | ~7% |
This is the first time in a generation that Indian growth has both a public and a private investment leg pulling in the same direction.
Frequently asked questions
Is it sustainable?
Conditional on stable rates and policy continuity, yes — balance sheets support it.
Does it crowd out infrastructure?
No — public capex is also rising.
Who benefits in markets?
Industrials, mid-cap engineering, capital-goods financiers, cement.
The bottom line
India's growth story is no longer a one-legged story. The private leg is finally taking weight.
