Argentina's Milei government has completed the FX unification — the elimination of the multiple exchange rate regime that distorted every price signal in the economy for two decades. The move has now held for six months without triggering the reserves collapse skeptics forecast, and the disinflation trajectory has continued. The heterodox program is beginning to look more durable than the base case admitted a year ago.
Key takeaways
- FX unification has held six months.
- Reserves have not collapsed.
- Disinflation trajectory is intact.
- The Milei program is more durable than base case.
Why the reserves have held
The unified rate is closer to the black market rate than the official rate at the start of the program, which means the export-underinvoicing incentive collapsed. Trade balance flows are running higher than pre-unification.
- Unified rate level: closer to prior parallel
- Trade balance: improved
- Reserves accumulation: modest but positive
- Disinflation: continued
What this does to the sovereign trade
It re-rates it. Argentine sovereign spreads have compressed from the crisis levels of 2023 and are now trading in a range that admits IMF program completion.
What the political cycle looks like
Mid-term elections in 2025 gave Milei a working coalition. The 2027 presidential cycle is the next major test.
What could break the trade
A political fatigue-driven pivot away from orthodoxy ahead of 2027.
Argentina unification — six-month status
| Metric | Direction |
|---|---|
| Unified FX | Held |
| Reserves | Accumulating modestly |
| Inflation | Falling |
| Sovereign spread | Compressed |
Argentina's unification held. The heterodox program is more durable than base case.
Frequently asked questions
Is the IMF program on track?
Yes.
Is inflation at target?
No — but trajectory is credible.
Is the 2027 election a risk?
The main forward risk.
The bottom line
FX unification held. Argentina's turnaround has passed a major structural test.
