Thirty months into the Milei administration, the Argentine stabilization has moved from the "shock therapy" phase into something that looks structurally durable. Monthly inflation has run in low single digits for more than a year. The parallel-official FX gap is closed. The central bank is rebuilding net international reserves. The fiscal surplus is real. The political risk has not disappeared, but the question has shifted from whether the programme will work to what the steady-state regime looks like.
Key takeaways
- Monthly inflation is sustainably in low single digits.
- Net international reserves are positive and rising.
- The parallel FX gap is effectively closed.
- The primary fiscal surplus has held through a political cycle.
What the dollar-bond market has priced
Argentine globals have re-rated from distressed levels to performing-EM levels. Spreads are still wider than peers but no longer pricing default. The local-currency curve has developed, with a meaningful peso-denominated investment base.
- Global bonds: re-rated meaningfully
- Local curve: developing
- FX regime: more flexible, less interventionist
- Reserve coverage: rising
What the regime now requires
Continued fiscal discipline, continued central bank independence, continued political support — none guaranteed, but all now plausible on a multi-year horizon.
Where the structural risk remains
The 2027 election cycle is the next obvious risk, but the political cost of unwinding the stabilization is now high.
What it means for the rest of LatAm
Argentina has become a credibility benchmark rather than a cautionary tale.
Argentina monthly inflation trajectory
| Period | Monthly CPI |
|---|---|
| Late 2023 | 25%+ |
| Mid-2024 | ~5% |
| Mid-2025 | ~2% |
| Mid-2026 | ~1.2% |
The threshold was when monthly prints stopped surprising. They stopped surprising more than a year ago.
Frequently asked questions
Is the programme reversible?
Politically yes, but the cost has risen.
Are reserves real?
Yes, the BCRA's net position is positive.
What's the next benchmark?
Return to international capital markets at sub-investment-grade-but-performing spreads.
The bottom line
Argentina's stabilization has become a regime. The conversation is now about durability, not viability.
