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Articles 51

JUL 14, 2026Research Reports

Two Markets, One Fed: Bonds Have Fully Priced Warsh's Hike; Equities Say It Won't Happen

The market has indeed swung from pricing cuts to pricing a hike under Warsh -- 76.06% on the Atlanta Fed's September SOFR window, only a 19.6% chance rates are still at 3.50-3.75% by December 9 -- but this is not an unpriced discount-rate shock: it is fully in the strip, already paid for by a 2-year at 4.26% (51bp above the top of the range), and owned by leveraged funds net short 2,872,406 SOFR contracts; the only people not positioned are equity investors, 83% of whom expect no hike before the November midterms with cash at 3.6%, which makes the dislocation one between two markets rather than between the market and the Fed -- and dangerous in both directions, because every hawkish dot was cast before a June CPI that printed core at -0.02% m/m and 2.57% y/y.