Trump Wants to Expand Nuclear Power. It Won’t Be Easy.

The renewed political push for nuclear power is undeniable, with figures like Donald Trump championing its expansion as a cornerstone of energy independence and decarbonization. It’s a compelling vision: clean, baseload power, 24/7. Yet, as anyone who’s watched this industry for a while knows, the journey from ambition to operational reality in nuclear energy is anything but straightforward. What it boils down to, for all the political rhetoric, is a cold, hard business reality: developers need to prove they can deliver. On time. And on budget.

This isn't a new challenge; it's the elephant in the reactor control room. Historically, large-scale nuclear projects have been plagued by significant cost overruns and protracted delays. Take the Vogtle Electric Generating Plant expansion in Georgia, for instance. It was originally estimated to cost around $14 billion and be completed by 2017. The final tally? Over $30 billion, with the last unit finally coming online in 2023. This kind of experience casts a long shadow over investor confidence and utility willingness to undertake new projects. Nobody wants to sign up for a decade-long saga that doubles or triples in price.

The core problem stems from a complex interplay of factors. First, these are massive capital expenditure projects, requiring billions upfront before a single electron is generated. Securing that kind of financing demands certainty – certainty in design, certainty in regulatory approval, and critically, certainty in construction timelines. Then there's the regulatory environment. Nuclear power is, understandably, one of the most heavily regulated industries, and navigating the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) approval process for new designs and plant constructions is a monumental task, often adding years and significant costs. What's more, the specialized supply chain, often dormant for decades between major build-outs, needs to be re-established and scaled, which introduces its own set of cost and delivery risks.

So, if the political will is there, how do you kick-start meaningful interest from the private sector? It circles back to those initial requirements: proof points. The industry needs successful, demonstrable projects that show a path to predictable delivery. This is where the promise of Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) comes into play. SMRs, with their standardized designs, factory fabrication, and smaller footprints, are envisioned to circumvent many of the challenges associated with large-scale gigawatt reactors. The idea is that mass production can drive down costs and improve construction efficiency, making them more attractive to utilities and investors. However, even SMRs are still largely in their nascent stages, with only a few demonstration projects either underway or recently canceled (like the NuScale Power project at the Idaho National Laboratory, which recently faced termination due to rising costs).

For private capital to truly jump in, they need to see a clear return on investment and manageable risk. This means not just innovative technology but also innovative project management and efficient regulatory pathways. Government support, whether through loan guarantees, tax credits, or direct funding for first-of-a-kind deployments, will undoubtedly play a role in de-risking early projects. But ultimately, the long-term viability of a nuclear expansion hinges on whether a new generation of developers can consistently bring these complex facilities online without the familiar refrain of "over budget and behind schedule."

The aspiration for a nuclear renaissance is strong, and the energy needs are clear. But transforming that ambition into reality requires more than just political backing. It demands a fundamental shift in how nuclear projects are conceived, funded, regulated, and, most importantly, executed. Until the industry can consistently demonstrate its ability to deliver on its promises, expanding nuclear power in the U.S. will remain a formidable challenge, requiring relentless focus on efficiency and fiscal discipline at every stage.