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July 1, 2025

Dealmakers Get Back on Track Thanks to Private Sellers

June 30, 2025 at 03:53 PM
4 min read
Dealmakers Get Back on Track Thanks to Private Sellers

It's a half-year report card for dealmakers, and while the grades aren't uniformly stellar, there's a definite upward trend, particularly thanks to an often-overlooked segment of the market. After a couple of years marked by significant headwinds—inflation, rising interest rates, and geopolitical uncertainty—the M&A landscape is showing renewed vitality. However, it isn't the blockbuster public mergers making the headlines that are driving this resurgence. Instead, it's the quiet persistence of private sellers that's truly putting dealmakers back on a more stable footing.

For much of the first half of the year, the large, publicly announced takeovers, particularly those involving listed companies, remained somewhat muted. Public market volatility and the intense regulatory scrutiny these mega-deals attract have kept many would-be corporate buyers on the sidelines or focused on smaller, tuck-in acquisitions. Valuations, too, have remained a sticky point, with buyers and sellers often far apart on price expectations amidst a shifting economic outlook.


What's more interesting, and indeed more impactful for deal volume, is the activity bubbling up from the private sector. Private equity firms, family offices, and privately held businesses seeking strategic exits or growth capital have become the lifeblood of the M&A market. These transactions often fly under the radar, away from the glare of public quarterly reports and investor calls, but they represent a substantial portion of the overall deal pie. They're often faster to negotiate, less prone to the whims of the public stock market, and can offer a more direct route to strategic objectives for both buyer and seller. We're seeing situations where owners, perhaps having held assets through the pandemic, now feel the timing is right to crystallize value or, conversely, to invest in growth that requires external capital.

This dynamic also reflects a crucial shift: liquidity is still very much available in private hands. Despite tighter credit markets, private equity funds are sitting on significant dry powder, eager to deploy capital into businesses with strong fundamentals and clear growth pathways. Moreover, corporate buyers are finding these private assets attractive because they often come without the complexities of public shareholder approvals or the inherent market noise that can accompany a publicly traded target. It’s a return to fundamentals, where due diligence and intrinsic value play a more prominent role than market sentiment.


Meanwhile, even the giants of industry are feeling the strategic imperative for M&A, albeit in nuanced ways. Take Shell, for instance. Recently, its CEO Wael Sawan definitively ruled out a significant deal like acquiring rival BP, stating "it is not what we plan." This seemingly straightforward statement might lead one to believe that major M&A is off the table for the energy supermajor. However, beneath the surface, the need for strategic transactions, specifically targeted M&A, remains very much alive for Shell and its peers.

The reality for energy companies like Shell is that the energy transition isn't merely about developing new technologies in-house; it's also about aggressively reshaping their portfolios. This involves divesting legacy assets that no longer fit the long-term strategy—think mature oil and gas fields—and simultaneously acquiring assets that align with future growth areas. This could mean investing in renewable energy projects, charging infrastructure, carbon capture technologies, or even expanding their footprint in specific liquefied natural gas (LNG) markets. So, while a massive, all-encompassing merger like a BP acquisition is off the table due to scale, complexity, and potentially antitrust concerns, Shell will almost certainly be an active player in smaller, more focused M&A to optimize its capital allocation and accelerate its strategic evolution.


In essence, dealmaking is indeed getting back on track, but it's a different track than many might have anticipated. The reliance on private sellers and the strategic, often smaller-scale, acquisitions in critical sectors are painting a more resilient picture for the industry. For dealmakers, the focus has shifted from hunting whales to carefully selecting schools of valuable fish. And for companies like Shell, even when big plays are ruled out, the underlying need for smart, targeted M&A to navigate profound industry shifts remains as strong as ever. It's a reminder that M&A isn't just about size; it's ultimately about strategic purpose and adaptability in a constantly evolving market.

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